Are the Giants screwed tomorrow? Probably! But let's talk about it because talking is fun. Now is as good a time as any to just get real, especially when it comes to a one-game, do-or-die Wild Card scenario. Most fans probably think their team is screwed and statistically speaking, most of those fans are 50% right. But those fans are also 50% wrong.
Normally, I love to have all kinds of stats to back up my sports-related arguments, especially when it comes to baseball. I don't need BABIP (cool anagram, though) or FIP, but ERA, WHIP, OBP, these stats mean something. Regarding tomorrow's National League Wild Card game though, I can only rely on previous performance and gut instincts. Neither of these factors make me feel very good about the Giants chances against the Pirates, but I don't think my team is necessarily doomed. Here are my "Keys To The Game":
1. PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING: This is a key for both teams and in pretty equal measure. The Giants are facing the "new" Edinson Volquez tomorrow, but even if he is better now than he used to be, he's still the preferred pitcher for the Giants to face over Gerrit Cole or Francisco Liriano. He's the least of all evils, if you will. If Madison Bumgarner pitches as well tomorrow as he's pitched on the road lately, the Pirates could be in a big trouble. He is the guy the Giants want out there and despite loving what Jake Peavy has done for the Giants this second half of the season, Bumgarner is who you want. Bumgarner just has to pound the strike zone (no nibbling or junk pitches!), hope the Pirates swing and miss (close your eyes when McCutchen or Harrison come up) and for God's sake, don't walk anybody. Also, the bullpens for both these teams have been scary good this year, so that's fun.
2. DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE (and DEFENSE!): As with pitching, both the Giants and Pirates are great teams defensively. A one-game playoff will likely be determined by a key defensive play, and I think both teams are ready for that, though perhaps the Pirates slightly more than the Giants. Why? Because the Pirates have won (and lost) a lot of games this season by one or two runs and they know how to win games by that small of a margin. In addition, the Giants are taking a bit of a gamble by putting Travis Ishikawa in left field, which while a better bet than Morse, still might not pay off. So, in that regard, the Pirates have the slight edge. But Ishikawa can hit, so the risk must be taken.
3. KEEP DOING WHAT WORKS: Sounds simple enough, right? Well, maybe. Maybe not. What works for the Giants is solid pitching (giving up 2 runs or fewer), excellent defense and not trying too hard at the plate. Whatever Gregor Blanco has been doing in the second half of the season really works, so hopefully that continues tomorrow. Giants fans also have to hope that Hunter Pence starts hitting again NOW and that good things continue to happen with Joe Panik and Buster Posey. Oh, and Brandon Belt not striking out in key situations would be helpful too. Patience, my good boy. Patience!
4. HOPE MOMENTUM IS REALLY A THING: Is momentum real? An illusion? Who knows, but right now, the Giants definitely have it over the Pirates, for whatever that's worth. The Pirates saw their division crown hopes go up in flames by losing the final series of their season to the Reds, and on a grand slam by a non-power hitter, no less. The Pirates' previously great bullpen made just a few bad pitches, so they lost their chance at the division tie-breaker game against the Cardinals. On the flip side, the Pirates are looking for redemption. Pirates = redemption, Giants = continue momentum. Which is more dangerous to be facing? It's a toss-up.
5. REMEMBER YOUR POSTSEASON EXPERIENCE: This is really where the advantage lies for the Giants over the Pirates. And that advantage does count for something, especially when you consider how many 2012 World Series players are still with the Giants now: Crawford, Belt, Posey, Blanco, Pence, Sandoval. Yes, this is a road game for the Giants, but it's not like they haven't been in elimination scenarios before; they OWNED elimination scenarios in 2012. They are as ready for this game as they've been all season.
6. STOP PRETENDING YOU KNOW HOW THIS WILL TURN OUT: This is perhaps the most important key to the game tomorrow. None of us really know how this will go down. We can assume that because of the pitching on both sides that it will be a low-scoring, defense-heavy game. But no one assumed the Giants would do anything in 2010 and 2012, and they have two World Series titles to show for it. Yet it could also be a blowout for either team. Anything could happen at any moment.
It's terrifying. It's exciting. It's vomit-inducing. But it's SO FUN, isn't it? At the very least, isn't it better than the alternative? Because no fan wants a postseason-less year. Or whatever. Go get 'em, boys!
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